Monday, June 19, 2006
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| Council On Hemispheric Affairs | |
| Monitoring Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the Western Hemisphere | |
| COHA Report 06.15 | Word Count: 2250 |
Mexico Steps Back from the Electoral Brink, but Perilous Days Likely to Lie Ahead |
Analysis prepared by COHA Research Fellow Michael Lettieri
Monday, June 19, 2006
Regarding the upcoming Mexican presidential election: |
- Calderón, López Obrador, Madrazo: the presidential race goes to the wire
- With less than three weeks remaining until Mexico’s July 2 presidential ballot, the tone of the campaign remains irredeemably nasty
- The June 13 signing of a “civility pact” among 6 of the 7 parties contesting the 2006 national elections may limit a potentially explosive post-vote dispute, although this is far from certain
- What the agreement does not resolve, however, are the acrimonious divisions provoked by the main parties’ depressing negative campaign strategies, typified by PAN candidate Felipe Calderón’s vicious attack ads
- New violence in Oaxaca suggests that social tensions have hardly abated in recent weeks, only heightening the possibility of post-election instability, including street violence
- It appears increasingly likely that lingering bitterness could make governing after July 2 a difficult prospect at best, irrespective of who wins
With the July 2 national election looming, Mexico’s presidential race has been consumed by vitriolic ad hominem attacks which have deeply scored the finish of the country’s newly-minted democracy. As negative tactics have continued undiminished, and tit-for-tat corruption allegations seize center stage, it appears evermore likely that the legacy of the presidential race will be that of a deeply divided country. This has become an all too immediate reality: a June 16 survey by the Mexico City daily Excelsior found that at least half the country expects that one of the three major presidential candidates will not passively accept the results of a narrow defeat.
With conflicting polls suggesting that the top two candidates – Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática and Felipe Calderón Hinojosa of the Partido Acción Nacional – are locked into an unusually tight race, such a disputed outcome seems all too plausible. Even if such a crisis is avoided, the eventual winner on July 2 will inevitably be forced to navigate a heavily mined political battleground and deal with a sharply divided legislature. Making the situation all the more tenuous is the probability that the incoming president will have won only a thin plurality of votes, as no candidate has topped 40% in national surveys in recent weeks. As the country hurtles towards election day, one thing is certain: the path both before and after July 2 is bound to be treacherous..
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