MEXIDATA
By Allan Wall
As a longtime gringo resident of Mexico, I have always enjoyed following Mexican politics, and this presidential election is no exception.
I’ve resided in Mexico since 1991, except for a recent 16-month hiatus when I was called-up to go to Iraq.
This is the third presidential election I’ve been privileged to observe as a resident of Mexico. I hasten to add that, as a foreigner, I don’t meddle in Mexican politics. I just observe.
Americans usually analyze foreign elections by how they are perceived to effect our interests, and that’s natural. And we look for the “pro-American candidates.”
But voters in other countries see their elections in terms of their own national and local issues.
To understand their elections, we have to look at them from the inside. Mexico is no exception.
Step back and look at the historical context, and you can see that Mexicans have already achieved a lot.
Just a scant few decades ago, Mexico was a one-party state. But it has transformed itself into a multiparty system of representative government with checks and balances.
This great change wasn’t brought about by a violent civil war or revolution. It was and is a gradual process. Nor can it all be attributed to the efforts of one party, one movement or one “great leader.”
The real heroes of Mexico’s political transformation are people like my Mexican mother-in-law, who worked as a volunteer poll observer back in the days of the one-party state.
In the old days Mexico’s bicameral Congress was just a rubberstamp for the executive. Whereas today no single party controls the Congress so the president must negotiate to pass legislation.
The Mexican Supreme Court, formerly controlled by the presidency, is now independent, demonstrating its independence by sometimes ruling against the president.
Mexico now has freedom of expression, with pundits and citizens free to openly criticize the government and the various political parties.
Mexico’s voter registration system is quite impressive – in fact it’s better than ours in the USA, which is rather slipshod.
Mexican voters use a secure voter ID card with photo, which is checked against a book containing a photograph of every registered voter in the precinct. This system helped Mexico in holding a 2000 election that went more smoothly than ours.
The days of the one-party state are gone.
Nevertheless, political plurality does not solve all the problems of a country.
Take the economy for example.
Mexico is not among the world’s poorest nations. Its GDP per capita is US$10,000, higher than the world average of US$9,300 but only a quarter that of the United States [US$41,800].
Juxtapose Mexico’s millions of poor with its 10 billionaires (including Carlos Slim, the world’s third richest man), and you can see there is a vast socioeconomic gap that could cause some real problems.
Then there is crime and corruption.
Narco-traffickers, supported by Mexican corruption and an insatiable American drug habit, are a threat to law and order. Sadly too, Mexico has a growing drug use and addictions problem.
These are all important issues for Mexico’s future.
The presidency of Vicente Fox is drawing to a close. Fox, of the PAN (National Action Party), has done well in the financial fundamentals, avoiding high inflation and peso devaluations, reducing foreign debt, that sort of thing.
These financial fundamentals are the sorts of things that aren’t appreciated until they go awry! I remember the big peso devaluation of 1994, which effectively cut every worker’s salary in half. And I’m certainly glad it hasn’t happened since.
But due to several factors, the Fox administration has failed to make significant economic reforms that would enable the Mexican economy to really takeoff and meet its potential. This he leaves for his successor.
And that brings us back to the Mexican presidential election of 2006.
Carlos Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the PRI, Felipe Calderon (PAN), and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO and a member of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, are right in the thick of battle, bringing their campaigns to the people of Mexico. Making their proposals and yes, criticizing the other candidates. That’s part of democracy and free speech, is it not?
Now within the last two months it’s become a real race. Calderon has passed AMLO in the polls, but it’s still too close to call. Too much could still happen in the last seven weeks.
It’s exciting, it’s interesting and it’s even entertaining.
And for the people of Mexico, it’s the future of the nation.
Allan Wall, a MexiData.info guest columnist, recently returned from a tour of duty in Iraq. He currently resides in Mexico, where he has lived since 1991. He can be reached via e-mail at allan39@prodigy.net.mx.
